Saturday, April 28, 2012

My Letter to Pranab da.!

Dear Pranab da.

So the rating agency "Standard and Poor’s" lowered the Outlook on India’s long-term sovereign credit rating to "negative" from 'stable'. Really, who cares? After the initial shock wore off, financial markets shrugged off the news. Apparently, your government seems to have done the same.



You have to admit dada, that you seem to have more faith than the rest of us that the country will be able to “overcome”. Especially when nothing is actually being done to overcome anything.

Making matters worse, you seem to be on a mission to drive out foreign investors through a range of ‘hostile’ measures, including a retrospective taxation proposal and attempting to tax transactions deemed to have been done to ‘evade tax’. Phew. Indeed, so far, your government has done precious little to support economic growth. The situation is really murky dada. Its like your saying to Foreign investors ‘take-your-money-and-run’.Bhag FII bhag.! Tujhe Sonia ji ki Kasam!

Just saying “timely warning” is not good enough, Pranab-da. You need to act on it. Now.! There are atleast 39 bills which are pending in the Parliament. 

In my view there are 6 key policy reforms that may save India from downgrade and may again put the economy back on track.
1) Goods and Services Tax (GST)
2) Direct Tax Code (DTC)
3) FDI in aviation
4) FDI in retail
5) Diesel decontrol
6) Companies Bill 2011

Dada, I have invested lots of money in the markets and I am as bullish as Jim Rogers is about the way forward for India.  Aah this reminds me of an anecdote I read sometime back.

"Once upon a time in a village, a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs 10. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them..The man bought thousands at Rs 10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would now buy at Rs 20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms.The offer rate increased to Rs 25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it! The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs 50!
 
However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him. In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers. Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at Rs 35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell it to him for Rs 50. " The villagers squeezed up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys. Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere!

Welcome to the 'Stock Market'! ‘

This shouldn’t be the message you give to Investors atleast for time being dada.

Your's Esteemed
Bengali misti misti Jalebi
LKR